Trump’s New Tariff Unlikely to Hit Nigeria Hard, Says CPPE

Nigeria is unlikely to suffer significant economic damage from the latest United States tariff measures because more than 80 percent of its exports to the US are crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and other petroleum products that are exempt from the new duties, the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) said on Sunday.

In a statement, the economic policy think tank led by Muda Yusuf said concerns over Washington’s decision to impose a 12.5 percent tariff on imports from Nigeria and about 60 other trading partners should not be overstated, arguing that the composition of its exports limits the country’s exposure to the measures.

“The new tariff regime represents a continuation of the reciprocal trade policy introduced under U.S. President Donald Trump, although it is now being implemented under a different legal framework following the judicial invalidation of the earlier measures,” the CPPE said.

According to the think tank, the latest tariffs appear to have been introduced under Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act, with allegations relating to forced labour providing the legal basis for the action. Despite the change in legal framework, it said the policy objective remains unchanged: protecting U.S. industries, strengthening domestic manufacturing and advancing broader American trade interests.

The CPPE’s comments followed Thursday’s announcement by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which imposed a 12.5 percent tariff on imports from Nigeria as part of a new trade measure targeting countries it said had failed to prohibit the importation of goods produced with forced labour.

The tariff applies to imports from 60 economies that Washington said have not “imposed and effectively enforced a prohibition on the importation of goods produced with forced labour.”

Africa’s most populous nation is among the countries facing the 12.5 percent tariff, while India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico and the United Kingdom will face a lower 10 percent rate after adopting or committing to implement bans on imports linked to forced labour.

Yusuf, founder and chief executive officer of the CPPE, said the direct economic implications for Nigeria would be modest because petroleum products, which account for more than 80 percent of the country’s merchandise exports to the United States, have been excluded from the new tariff measures.

“The bulk of Nigeria’s exports to the United States will therefore remain unaffected,” he said.

He also noted that the United States is no longer Nigeria’s largest export destination. According to Nigeria’s first-quarter 2026 merchandise trade statistics, total exports stood at about ₦21.6 trillion, with exports to the United States accounting for only 5.56 percent of the total.

By comparison, India accounted for 13.09 percent of Nigeria’s exports during the period, followed by France (9.29 percent), the Netherlands (9.22 percent) and Spain (7.68 percent), making the United States the country’s fifth-largest export market.

While acknowledging that some non-oil exporters, particularly in agriculture and manufacturing, could become less competitive in the U.S. market, the CPPE said the affected products account for only a small share of Nigeria’s exports and are therefore unlikely to materially affect export earnings, foreign exchange inflows or broader macroeconomic performance.

The USTR said the tariffs would not apply to certain categories of products, including raw materials that could create domestic supply shortages, goods that could cause economy-wide disruptions, products unavailable in sufficient quantities in the United States or from alternative sources, and selected goods from countries that have adopted or pledged to implement forced labour import bans.

It added that additional exemptions were granted where the tariffs were deemed unlikely to eliminate the trade practices under investigation.

Beyond the immediate impact, the CPPE said the latest tariff measures reflect a broader shift towards protectionism and the increasing use of trade policy to advance domestic economic objectives.

The think tank said the evolving global trade environment reinforces the need for Nigeria to diversify its export base, strengthen manufacturing competitiveness, deepen domestic value addition and expand regional trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

It also urged the government to strengthen labour standards, improve supply chain transparency and engage proactively with U.S. authorities to seek clarity on the implementation of the new measures and minimise any adverse impact on affected exporters.

“While the new U.S. tariffs have generated understandable concern, their direct economic implications for Nigeria should not be overstated. The greater challenge lies not in the immediate loss of export opportunities, but in navigating an increasingly fragmented and protectionist global trading environment,” the CPPE said.