Nigeria’s trade surplus soars to record N16.9trn under Tinubu

Nigeria’s trade surplus surged to the highest on record under President Bola Tinubu as exports grew at a faster pace than imports last year, data compiled by Markets Reporters show. 

The country posted a trade surplus of N16.9 trillion in 2024, up from N6.09 trillion in the previous year, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released on Friday. Its trade balance has been positive since 2022 after two straight years of deficit occasioned by the fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic. 

A trade surplus occurs when a country’s exports exceed its imports while a deficit is the opposite. 

“The surge in trade surplus was largely caused by higher oil prices and the effect of currency depreciation,” said Israel Odubola, a Lagos-based research economist.

A breakdown of the report revealed that total exports contributed 68.1 percent to the total merchandise trade of N138 trillion while imports accounted for 43.9 percent. The value of exports jumped by 109.76 percent to N77.4 trillion while imports climbed by 96.44 percent to N60.7 trillion.

The country’s exports continued to be dominated by crude oil sales, which was valued at N66.3 trillion, higher than N29 trillion in the previous year, while non-oil exports increased to N9.09 trillion from N3.14 trillion.

A surplus supports a stronger current account position, which contributes to overall economic stability and growth, according to Odubola.

Crude oil production is a major source of revenue for the federal government of Africa’s most populous nation. According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, the country produced 1.55 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, up from N1.47 million bpd.

Since the Central Bank of Nigeria liberalised the foreign exchange market in July 2023, the naira has weakened significantly against the dollar and other major foreign currencies.

Last year, the currency plunged to N1,450/$ in 2024 from N645.1/$ in 2023.

“Exports would improve significantly because the naira is weaker, which would attract more dollar inflows whether in the form of trade or any other form,” Abiodun Keripe, managing director at Afrinvest Consulting, said. 

Muda Yusuf, chief executive officer of Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, said from the classic economist’s point of view, once a currency is devalued, exports are expected to increase “but unfortunately for Nigeria, the structure of its economy does not respond to that kind of incentive because of its insufficient productive capacity”.

“Most of our production is related to imports in a large way. So, we have not, to a large extent, taken advantage of the devaluation of the currency, although there have been some advantages,” he said.