IMF sees Nigeria’s per capita income hitting three-year high in 2026

By Mary Adenike

Nigeria’s average income is projected to rise to the highest in three years in 2026, a situation that could improve the living standard of many cash-strapped Nigerians.

Markets Reporters’ analysis of the latest data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows that the nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita is estimated to increase to $940.2 from a forecast of $835.49 in 2025. The projected average income is the first increase since 2022.

Per capita income is a key economic indicator that reflects the average income per person in a country and is often used to gauge living standards. An increase in income reflects higher economic growth, increased productivity, or better job opportunities while a negative is the opposite.

Further analysis shows that last year’s GDP per capita in Africa’s most populous country was the lowest since 2003. This means that Nigerians have become poorer in the past two decades.

It also fell below par when compared to its smaller neighboring countries such as the  Benin Republic ($1,510.2), Togo ($1,051.2), Ghana (4,2231.8), and Ivory Coast ($2,719.8). 

This is a result of various policy missteps made in the last decade that have weakened the economy and worsened living conditions, according to SB Morgen, a Lagos-based data and intelligence gathering firm.

Nigeria has experienced two recessions in the past decade, often linked to fluctuations in global oil prices. The recessions have led to declines in GDP per capita, impacting living standards and increasing poverty levels.

“Nigeria’s GDP per capita has experienced significant volatility, reflecting the nation’s complex and often turbulent economic landscape. Inadequate investment in infrastructure and human capital has intermittently suppressed economic growth and living standards,” analysts at CSL Research said in a recent note.

They added that while rising oil prices in certain years provided temporary boosts—spurring revenue growth and lifting GDP per capita—these gains were largely confined to the oil sector, leaving other industries lagging. 

“This overreliance on oil made the economy highly vulnerable to external shocks and price fluctuations. Additionally, political uncertainty and corruption have further impeded sustainable long-term growth, limiting broad-based economic development.”

In October last year, the National Bureau of Statistics announced plans to rebase the GDP and Consumer Price Index (CPI) to reflect current realities and account for structural changes in the economy. The year 2019 was chosen as the new base year for GDP, replacing the previous base year of 2010, while 2024 is set as the new base year for the CPI. 

Since the statistical agency announced plans to rebase the GDP and CPI, there have been concerns that it would lead to a significant increase in the overall GDP figure and a reduction in inflation which could create a perception that the economy is performing much better than it is.

CSL Research noted that while the exact impact of the current rebasing is yet to be fully determined, it is anticipated that the GDP per capita will rise, suggesting an improved economic standing. “However, it’s important to note that such statistical adjustments may not immediately translate to tangible improvements in the standard of living for the average Nigerian.”