Nigerian data agency NBS keeps mum one week after missing GDP rebasing target

By Mary Adenike

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has yet to release the country’s rebased figures for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) one week after missing the target it set for the launch.

No communication had been made regarding the delay as of the time of publishing this story on Friday.

The NBS announced on January 9, 2025 at a sensitisation workshop in Lagos that the rebased figures would be released by the end of last month.

Moses Waniko, technical assistant to the Statistician General of NBS, said during a presentation that the gathered data would be validated and then launched at the end of January.

“We’re currently concluding the rebasing. We need to validate the results, and then we have to do a launch; we are looking at the end of January to do that launch, to disseminate the numbers, and then, usually, there are post-rebasing activities that will happen,” he said at the time.

Rebasing is the process of revising the base year or reference point used to calculate various key economic indicators. It aims to align economic statistics with current realities and account for structural changes in Nigeria’s economy.

In October last year, the NBS announced plans to rebase the GDP and CPI to reflect current realities and account for structural changes in the economy. The year 2019 was chosen as the new base year, compared to 2010 used since 2014, while 2024 is set as the new base year for the CPI.

Since the statistical agency announced plans to rebase GDP and CPI, there have been concerns that it would lead to a significant increase in the overall GDP figure and a reduction in inflation, which could create a perception that the economy is performing much better than it is.

“While the official figures after rebasing remain uncertain until published by the NBS, GDP usually appears larger thereafter because it incorporates economic activities that were previously excluded, with the probable increase this time around reflecting more in naira than in dollar terms (because of the significant depreciation of the national currency),” a recent report by Agora Policy said.

It added that even an increase in naira terms does not mean that the Nigerian economy has suddenly grown overnight or that everyone is better off—it is simply a more accurate representation of the current size and structure of the economy. “Overall, the rebasing is useful and can improve fiscal and monetary policy formulation if objectively calculated, analysed, and utilized.”

The CFG Advisory expressed concern in a report that the federal government’s move to rebase GDP and CPI might not yield the desired economic outcomes.

“Plans to rebase GDP and CPI are of particular concern. Rebased unemployment numbers do not reflect the reality. The ongoing exercise to rebase GDP and CPI might, therefore, not yield the desired results,” it said. “The country is no longer the largest Economy in Africa, ranking fourth behind South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria. This owing to prolonged policy inconsistency since the economy came out of the post-COVID recession.”