Iran War Breaks Nigeria’s 11-Month Disinflation Streak
Nigeria’s annual inflation rate rose to 15.38 percent in March from 15.06 percent in the previous month, ending an 11-month disinflation streak, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report released on Wednesday.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that food inflation — the largest component of the basket — accelerated for the second consecutive month to 14.31 percent, up from 12.12 percent in February. On a monthly basis, prices rose by 4.2 percent, the sharpest increase since January 2025.
“The CPI increased to 135.4 in March 2026, reflecting a 5.4-point increase from the preceding month (130.0),” the report said.
The rebound in inflation comes amid heightened global uncertainty triggered by escalating tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran.
Benchmark oil prices surged above $100 per barrel following the outbreak of the conflict in February, briefly easing after a ceasefire announcement last week before rebounding on renewed tensions after US President Donald Trump signalled plans to impose a naval blockade on Iran.
For fuel-importing African economies such as Nigeria, the impact has been immediate. Rising pump prices are feeding into higher transport, food and production costs, eroding purchasing power and threatening to reverse recent disinflation gains.
“While recent months have reflected a gradual moderation in year-on-year inflation, the latest data signals a worrying resurgence of inflationary pressures, particularly on a month-on-month basis,” Muda Yusus, founder and CEO of Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) said in a note. “
He added that the development underscores the fragility of the disinflation process and raises concerns about renewed cost pressures in the economy and that the figures are particularly troubling given their direct impact on household welfare.
“Transportation costs, which are heavily influenced by fuel prices and logistics inefficiencies, continue to exert strong upward pressure on prices across sectors. The transmission mechanism is simple: higher transport costs raise the cost of moving food, goods and services nationwide, thereby amplifying inflation.”
CPPE recommends that the policy response must therefore shift from a narrow focus on monetary tools to a broader strategy that addresses the structural drivers of inflation, particularly in energy, food and transportation.
“Without decisive action in these areas, the gains recorded in inflation moderation may prove temporary, while households and businesses continue to grapple with significant cost pressures,” the private sector think tank noted.
