Nigeria’s Instability Risk Index Hits 3-Year High as Insecurity Worsens

Nigeria’s geopolitical environment deteriorated in 2025, with rising insecurity and a surge in mass kidnappings pushing the country’s instability score to its highest level since SBM Intelligence began compiling its Africa Country Instability Risk Index (ACIRI) in 2023. 

The latest report shows Nigeria’s score rising from 39 in 2023 to 45 in 2024 and further to 52 in 2025—placing Africa’s most populous nation firmly in the “critical” risk category.

SBM’s index uses a mixed-method approach, covering 48 countries across West, Central, East and Southern Africa.

It evaluates macro-risk indicators in four weighted categories: Leadership and Governance (40%), Economy (30%), Geopolitics (15%) and History (15%), producing a composite score of 100. Nigeria scored 16 in leadership and governance, 20 in economy, 6 in geopolitics and 10 in history, reflecting broad-based deterioration.

The worsening score underscores how unsafe Nigeria has become in two years. The country is experiencing one of its most severe waves of mass abductions in recent memory, with gunmen attacking schools, churches and communities across multiple states. 

In three weeks alone, more than 300 students were abducted in Niger State and 25 girls kidnapped in Kebbi, while a deadly attack on a church in Kwara triggered further nationwide alarm. These incidents have led to widespread school closures across 19 states and renewed international concern.

The African focussed geopolitics firm noted that “Nigeria’s economy remains fragile,” with slowing inflation partly driven by GDP rebasing rather than improved conditions on the ground. “Widespread insecurity and deepening poverty are undermining stability,” the report said, adding that living costs have surged following the removal of petrol subsidies and exchange-rate reforms, forcing many businesses to shut down.

Yet SBM acknowledged that fiscal tightening and renewed investor engagement have produced some tentative macroeconomic improvements. 

Political divisions persist after the contentious 2023 elections, but institutional continuity has prevented a total economic collapse. Still, the country remains on a precarious path.

International alarm grows

Global concern over Nigeria’s escalating insecurity intensified last month after US President Donald Trump designated the country a “country of particular concern,” placing it alongside Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran and China. He warned on Truth Social that the US could halt aid and consider “possible action” if killings continue, blaming “radical Islamists” for rising violence.

His comments followed weeks of lobbying by US lawmakers and Christian advocacy groups. Analysts say the threat of US military intervention, even if unlikely, could hurt investor sentiment at a time when President Bola Tinubu is pushing sweeping reforms to attract capital and reach a $1 trillion GDP by 2030.

Nigeria had begun to regain investor confidence. Capital inflows hit a six-year high of $12.3 billion in 2024—up 214% from $3.91 billion in 2023—while Foreign Direct Investments nearly doubled to $674.7 million, the highest in three years. In the first quarter of 2025, total investment inflows grew 67.1% year-on-year to $5.6 billion, although FDI dipped by 6%.

“Uncertainty and fear would lead investors to adopt a wait-and-see posture,” said Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise. “Private equity and venture funds could diversify away from Nigeria toward peer economies with lower political risk.”

Kidnappings surge, echoing past trauma

Media reports indicate that between 300 and 400 schoolchildren were kidnapped in November alone, across more than half of Nigeria’s states. The wave of abductions has revived memories of the 2014 Chibok tragedy, when 276 girls were taken by Boko Haram; dozens remain missing today.

According to SBM, between July 2024 and June 2025, 4,722 people were abducted nationwide, with ₦2.56 billion ($1.66 million) paid in ransom. The Northwest accounted for 62.2% of victims, particularly Zamfara and Katsina.

Last week, CSL Research warned that Nigeria is witnessing a “troubling expansion of attacks by decentralised bandit groups,” which are now encroaching on parts of the Southwest, including Kwara and Ekiti. Beyond the human toll, the violence is disrupting agriculture, worsening food insecurity and deepening economic hardship in rural communities.

CSL added: “Nigeria’s rapidly deteriorating security situation demands urgent, coordinated action. The resurgence and geographic expansion of armed groups threaten national stability, food security and economic recovery.”

Regional comparisons highlight uneven stability

SBM’s broader regional findings show sub-Saharan Africa’s average instability score rose to 47.46% in 2025 from 45.63% in 2024. 

Of the 48 countries surveyed, 31 improved while others deteriorated. Angola, Burundi, Chad, Togo and Madagascar were the biggest gainers, driven largely by cuts in governance costs and improved GDP growth.

Meanwhile, Madagascar, Sierra Leone, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Guinea Bissau recorded the steepest declines.

Madagascar’s military takeover and persistent youth protests, Sierra Leone’s weak institutional capacity post-coup attempt, Ethiopia’s ethnic tensions and Tanzania’s democratic backsliding all contributed to higher risk scores.

Eastern Africa emerged as the most unstable region for the second straight year, with countries like Sudan and Eritrea ranking among the top five highest-risk nations. 

West Africa contributed 30% of the top-risk group, driven by the deepening crises in Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali.

Conversely, Southern Africa remained the continent’s most stable region, supported by economic improvements in South Africa and consistently low risk scores from Mauritius, Lesotho and Namibia