World Bank lifts growth forecast for Nigeria, sub-Saharan African peers
By Mary Adenike
The sub-Saharan Africa region is expected to grow to 4.1 percent in 2025 from 2.9 percent last year as financial conditions ease alongside further declines in inflation, according to the World Bank.
In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the multilateral lender said growth projections for 2025 have been revised upward by 0.2 percentage point, and for 2026 by 0.3 percentage point and that the growth trajectory, however, is expected to be unevenly distributed among SSA economies.
“Growth rates in the region’s largest two economies will continue to lag those of the rest of the region, despite projected growth pickups in both countries. Excluding the two largest economies, growth in the region is forecast to strengthen from 4 percent in 2024 to about 5.3 percent in 2025–26,” the report said.
It added that growth in industrial-commodity-exporting economies, excluding Sudan, is forecast to recover amid a pickup in service sector growth as household consumption improves.
“Growth in the region’s two largest economies—Nigeria and South Africa— rose to an average of 2.2 percent in 2024, supported by improved electricity supply in South Africa and higher oil production in Nigeria. In the region’s other countries, growth edged up to 4.0 percent.Consumer price inflation diverged across the region, with the majority of countries experiencing moderate and declining price increases, though food price inflation remained relatively high.”
The World Bank warned that “sharper-than-expected” economic slowdown in China, escalating global geopolitical tensions, and worsening political instability and an escalation of violent conflicts in the SSA region could negatively affect the region’s growth outlook.
“More persistent-than-expected inflation could keep global interest rates elevated, exacerbating the challenges confronting highly indebted countries, while greater frequency and intensity of adverse weather events could exacerbate poverty in many SSA countries,” it said.
