Oxford Economics Tips Tinubu for Second Term Despite Rising Voter Discontent

Campaigning for Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election has officially begun, with Oxford Economics forecasting that President Bola Tinubu will secure a second term despite widespread dissatisfaction over economic hardship and insecurity.

The research firm said Tinubu would enter the contest with significant advantages, including the power of incumbency, a well-established political structure and an opposition divided among several candidates. Fragmentation could split the anti-Tinubu vote and strengthen the president’s path to re-election.

However, Oxford Economics warned that the ruling All Progressives Congress could face a more difficult battle in governorship and parliamentary contests.

“The recent Osun gubernatorial election suggests that the APC will face a tougher fight in the governorship races,” political analyst Jervin Naidoo said in a report released Thursday.

“The party could also come under greater pressure in parliamentary elections, where voters may use their ballots to punish the APC as a proxy for dissatisfaction with Tinubu’s government.”

The economy and Nigeria’s deepening cost-of-living crisis are expected to dominate the election. According to risk advisory firm SBM Intelligence, nearly 80% of Nigerians believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, while 45% identify economic hardship and insecurity as their leading concerns.

Tinubu’s central challenge will be persuading voters that his administration’s economic reforms will eventually improve living standards.

His government’s removal of the petrol subsidy and decision to allow the naira to float were praised by international investors as necessary steps towards stabilising Africa’s most populous economy. But the policies also contributed to sharp increases in fuel, food, transport and other household costs.

“While macroeconomic reforms are necessary, for many Nigerians, economic stability matters only insofar as it translates into improved everyday finances,” Oxford Economics senior economist Brendon Verster said.

Verster said Nigeria would need sustained annual real gross domestic product growth of at least 6% to achieve meaningful poverty reduction, particularly given the country’s rapidly expanding population.

“However, simply returning to the high growth rates of the 2000s would not be sufficient without employment-intensive economic growth and inclusiveness that benefits poorer households,” he warned.

Security will also be a major campaign issue. Tinubu must convince voters that his administration can contain the insurgency, banditry and other violent threats affecting communities across the country.

The president, 73, is seeking a second term after winning the disputed 2023 election. A former Lagos State governor, he enters the race backed by the APC’s formidable political machinery, which has been strengthened by defections from opposition parties since the last election.

The presidential contest is expected to centre on four prominent figures: Tinubu of the APC; former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress; former Anambra State governor Peter Obi of the Nigeria Democratic Congress; and Senator Sandy Onor of the Peoples Democratic Party.

While Oxford Economics considers Tinubu the frontrunner, the campaign is likely to become a referendum on whether the pain caused by his reforms has produced visible economic gains. If household finances remain under severe pressure, voters could punish the APC in legislative and state elections—even if a divided opposition helps Tinubu retain the presidency.